排序方式： 共有79条查询结果，搜索用时 31 毫秒
41.
SCE-UA算法优化土壤湿度方程中参数的性能研究 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
借助于一维土壤湿度模型,分别将土壤成份和土壤性质相关参数作为待优化的参数,通过观测系统模拟试验的方式,评估SCE-UA (Shuffled Complex Evolution Algorithm) 优化算法对这些参数的优化效果。结果表明:优化的效果不仅依赖于参数的取值范围,还依赖于参数的敏感性,敏感的参数通过优化算法易得到最优值;不敏感的参数存在“不敏感区间”,在“不敏感区间”中易陷入次优,通过缩小参数优化分布区间和增加优化的次数可以部分提高优化的效果。此外,模型的超定性也可能导致参数次优值的出现,而通过恰当地给出参数之间的约束条件和优化判据,可以提高参数优化的效果。 相似文献
42.
The relationship between the radar reflectivity factor (Z) and the rainfall rate (R) is recalculated based on radar observations from 10 Doppler radars and hourly rainfall measurements at 6529 automatic weather stations over the Yangtze–Huaihe River basin. The data were collected by the National 973 Project from June to July 2013 for severe convective weather events. The Z–R relationship is combined with an empirical qr–R relationship to obtain a new Z–qr relationship, which is then used to correct the observational operator for radar reflectivity in the three-dimensional variational (3DVar) data assimilation system of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to improve the analysis and prediction of severe convective weather over the Yangtze–Huaihe River basin. The performance of the corrected reflectivity operator used in the WRF 3DVar data assimilation system is tested with a heavy rain event that occurred over Jiangsu and Anhui provinces and the surrounding regions on 23 June 2013. It is noted that the observations for this event are not included in the calculation of the Z–R relationship. Three experiments are conducted with the WRF model and its 3DVar system, including a control run without the assimilation of reflectivity data and two assimilation experiments with the original and corrected reflectivity operators. The experimental results show that the assimilation of radar reflectivity data has a positive impact on the rainfall forecast within a few hours with either the original or corrected reflectivity operators, but the corrected reflectivity operator achieves a better performance on the rainfall forecast than the original operator. The corrected reflectivity operator extends the effective time of radar data assimilation for the prediction of strong reflectivity. The physical variables analyzed with the corrected reflectivity operator present more reasonable mesoscale structures than those obtained with the original reflectivity operator. This suggests that the new statistical Z–R relationship is more suitable for predicting severe convective weather over the Yangtze–Huaihe River basin than the Z–R relationships currently in use. 相似文献
43.
The global warming slowdown or warming hiatus, began around the year 2000 and has persisted for nearly 15 years. Most studies have focused on the interpretation of the hiatus in temperature. In this study, changes in a global aridity index (AI) were analyzed by using a newly developed dynamical adjustment method that can successfully identify and separate dynamically induced and radiatively forced aridity changes in the raw data. The AI and Palmer Drought Severity Index produced a wetting zone over the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere in recent decades. The dynamical adjustment analysis suggested that this wetting zone occurred in response to the global warming hiatus. The dynamically induced AI (DAI) played a major role in the AI changes during the hiatus period, and its relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) also indicated that different phases of the NAO, PDO, and AMO contributed to different performances of the DAI over the Northern Hemisphere. Although the aridity wetting over the mid-to-high latitudes may relieve long-term drying in certain regions, the hiatus is temporary, and so is the relief. Accelerated global warming will return when the NAO, PDO, and AMO revert to their opposite phases in the future, and the wetting zone is likely to disappear. 相似文献
44.
利用2018年6月9日—7月10日安庆、长沙、赣州、南昌、宜昌、武汉6个探空站的往返式探空观测试验数据,研究分析了重力波参数（能量密度、固有频率、波长及传播方向）,统计了试验地区6—7月的重力波特征,比较了各站之间以及上升与下降段之间重力波的差异。主要结果如下:（1）该区域重力波动能分布在0.2—1.2 J/m3,平均约为0.8 J/m3,势能分布在0.03—0.5 J/m3,平均约为0.2 J/m3。（2）垂直波长中90%样本分布在1—2.5 km,超过50%的样本分布在2—2.5 km,平均波长为1.8 km左右;水平波长分布范围40—1500 km,主要集中在200—800 km,平均600 km,重力波垂直波长与水平波长的比值很小,在平流层重力波以水平传播为主。（3）大部分站点的上升和下降段结果均存在比较明显的主要传播方向,但主要传播方向特征并不一致,以西北方向传播最多,其次是北向传播。这种往返式探空数据适用于下平流层重力波的观测与分析,下降段资料起到对重力波事件的加密观测作用。上升与下降段所获得的结果存在一定差异,但除水平传播方向外,其余参数差别较小,除能量外,其余参数在下降段结果偏大。 相似文献
45.
Discrimination and Validation of Clouds and Dust Aerosol Layers over the Sahara Desert with Combined CALIOP and IIR Measurements 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3 
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下载免费PDF全文 This study validates a method for discriminating between daytime clouds and dust aerosol layers over the Sahara Desert that uses a combination of active CALIOP（Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization） and passive IIR（Infrared Imaging Radiometer） measurements;hereafter,the CLIM method.The CLIM method reduces misclassification of dense dust aerosol layers in the Sahara region relative to other techniques.When evaluated against a suite of simultaneous measurements from CALIPSO（Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations）,CloudSat,and the MODIS（Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer）,the misclassification rate for dust using the CLIM technique is 1.16%during boreal spring 2007.This rate is lower than the misclassification rates for dust using the cloud aerosol discriminations performed for version 2（V2-CAD;16.39%） or version 3（V3-CAD;2.01%） of the CALIPSO data processing algorithm.The total identification errors for data from in spring 2007 are 13.46%for V2-CAD,3.39%for V3-CAD,and 1.99%for CLIM.These results indicate that CLIM and V3-CAD are both significantly better than V2-CAD for discriminating between clouds and dust aerosol layers.Misclassifications by CLIM in this region are mainly limited to mixed cloud-dust aerosol layers.V3-CAD sometimes misidentifies low-level aerosol layers adjacent to the surface as thin clouds,and sometimes fails to detect thin clouds entirely.The CLIM method is both simple and fast,and may be useful as a reference for testing or validating other discrimination techniques and methods. 相似文献
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47.
边界层对流对示踪物抬升和传输影响的大涡模拟研究 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
利用"西北干旱区陆气相互作用野外观测实验"加密观测期间敦煌站的实测资料以及大涡模式, 通过一系列改变地表热通量和风切变的敏感性数值试验, 分析了地表热通量和风切变对边界层对流的强度、形式, 以及对对流边界层结构和发展的影响。模拟结果显示风切变一定, 增大地表热通量时, 由于近地层湍流运动增强, 向上输送的热量也较多, 使对流边界层变暖增厚, 而且边界层对流的强度明显增强, 对流泡发展的高度也较高。当地表热通量一定, 增大风切变时, 由于风切变使夹卷作用增强, 将逆温层中的暖空气向下卷入混合层中, 使对流边界层增暖增厚, 但是对流泡容易破碎, 对流的强度也较弱。另外通过在模式近地层释放绝对浓度为100的被动示踪物方法, 用最小二乘法定量地分析了地表热通量和风切变分别与示踪物抬升效率和传输高度的关系。分析结果表明, 风切变小于10.5×10-3 s-1时, 增大地表热通量加强了上层动量的下传, 使示踪物的抬升效率也线性增大;地表热通量小于462.5 W m-2时, 增大风切变减弱了边界层对流的强度, 从而使示踪物的抬升效率减弱。当风切变一定时, 示踪物的平均传输高度随地表热通量增加而增大, 而地表热通量一定, 只有风切变大于临界值时, 示踪物平均传输高度才随风切变的增加而增大, 而临界风速的大小由地表热通量决定。 相似文献
48.
利用美国航空航天局MERRA(Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications)再分析资料和MODIS(Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)卫星资料以及欧洲气象中心ECMWF-Interim(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)再分析资料,分析了发生于青藏高原北侧上空的一次地形重力波事件,并使用中尺度预报模式WRF-ARW.V3.0(Weather Research and Forecasting model,V3.0)对其进行了数值模拟.在此基础上,诊断分析了此次地形重力波在UTLS(Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere)区域造成的物质和能量垂直传输特征.分析结果表明这一中尺度地形重力波信号的水平波长约为600km,与地形扰动水平尺度接近,重力波在对流层中传播的垂直波长约为3km,在垂直方向上随着高度的增加呈现出由东向西倾斜的结构特征.此次地形重力波上传进入平流层并在150hPa附近破碎,波破碎后动量通量在短时间内发生了强烈的衰减,重力波携带的能量在破碎高度附近释放.重力波破碎的同时垂直方向湍流混合变得异常强烈,湍流交换系数可在短时间内增加到背景值的8倍以上,剧烈湍流混合过程导致了对流层上层的空气进入平流层,使下平流层空气出现了位势涡度和臭氧的低值区,在浮力频率的垂直剖面中也可以看到由于地形重力波过程造成的平流层下层浮力频率异常低值区. 相似文献
49.
In model-based sensitivity studies, the growth of model error over long-term integrations may lead to serious deviations between the simulated and actual states. To reduce these errors, we have developed a new modeling approach with application of the Newtonian relaxation technique, or nudging. In this approach, an identical artificial Newtonian relaxation term that reflects the difference between the model reference state and its analysis (available in many sensitivity studies) is added to the prognostic equations of the two simulated states, the reference state and the perturbed state (for which observations are nonexistent). We have conducted idealized sensitivity experiments with a shallow-water model to evaluate the benefits and viability of this approach and to test its sensitivity to changes in the nudging period and error in the analysis data. The experimental results confirm that this approach lead to more credible atmospheric responses to modified external forcing if the data error is within a reasonable range. The results also indicate that a 12-hour period is more favorable for nudging than a 24-hour period. 相似文献
50.
基于CERES的宁夏空中云水资源特征及其增雨潜力研究 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
利用2009-2014年NASA地球观测系统(EOS)云与地球辐射能量系统(CERES)云资料和气象站降水资料,对宁夏北部引黄灌区、中部干旱带及南部山区3个具有不同地形、地貌、气候特征的地区云水资源及增雨潜力特征进行了对比研究。结果表明:宁夏地区大气可降水量在空间分布上呈现从东南向西北方向递减,从季节变化看表现出随夏秋春冬依次递减的特征。在东亚季风和贺兰山地形的共同影响下,全年总云量和低云量在南部山区最大,北部川区最小。云光学厚度与水云粒子半径及冰云等效直径呈显著的负相关关系,其中中部干旱带相关关系最强是开展人工增雨效果最显著的地区。随着全年四季天气气候变化,宁夏人工增雨主要潜力区会逐渐由春季的贺兰山沿山、中部干旱带地区,移动到夏季的银川以南同心以北和固原西南部地区,秋季缩减到海原、西吉一带。 相似文献